War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".