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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.