Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.