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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still