A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
